Pakistan's tax authority has projected that federal tax revenue will reach PKR 14.5 trillion in fiscal year 2026-27 before accounting for any new taxation or budget measures, reflecting an 11.7% increase from the expected collection of PKR 12.983 trillion in FY2025-26, according to a report by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR).
The FBR's revenue forecasting report estimated an autonomous increase of PKR 1.517 trillion, based on tax-specific buoyancy coefficients and projected macroeconomic indicators, including GDP growth, industrial output and trade activity. The projections exclude discretionary policy interventions such as new taxes, changes in tax rates or the withdrawal of tax exemptions.
"The forecast isolates the structural responsiveness of the tax system to economic expansion without incorporating discretionary policy interventions," the report said.
According to the FBR, the projected 11.7% growth reflects moderate but stable revenue expansion, broadly aligned with expected improvements in economic activity. However, it cautioned that external shocks, exchange rate volatility, changes in tax compliance or policy shifts could affect the actual revenue outcome.
The report projected direct tax collections to rise to PKR 7.366 trillion, requiring annual growth of 14.5%, driven by expected expansion in GDP, corporate profitability and improved tax compliance.
Sales tax collections are forecast to reach PKR 4.735 trillion, up 9.3%, supported by anticipated growth in consumption, large-scale manufacturing and imports.
Revenue from customs duties is projected at PKR 1.496 trillion, while Federal Excise Duty (FED) collections are estimated at PKR 902 billion, reflecting expected trends in imports, sector-specific production and policy continuity.
The FBR said the baseline projections would serve as a benchmark for measuring the impact of new taxation measures introduced through the federal budget, which will be incorporated separately by the relevant departments.
The report also highlighted a structural shift in Pakistan's tax mix, projecting that direct taxes will account for about 50% of total revenue in FY2026-27. The FBR said the growing share of income-based taxation reflects progress toward a more balanced and equitable tax system by reducing reliance on indirect taxes while improving fiscal sustainability through stronger documentation and tax compliance reforms.
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