Higher fuel prices slow Pakistan’s oil sales growth

The eye-watering price surge in petroleum product prices is likely to lower offtake in Pakistan, deterring monthly growth.

Pakistan’s oil marketing companies (OMCs) recorded moderate growth in February as resilient transport and agricultural demand supported fuel consumption, though higher domestic fuel prices weighed on monthly volumes, a research analyst said.

Total industry sales stood at 1.28 million metric tons (MT) in February, representing a 15% decline from January but a 13% increase compared with the same month last year, according to industry data.

The monthly drop was largely driven by weaker demand for high-speed diesel (HSD) and furnace oil (FO) after elevated consumption in January.

“OMC sales are expected to witness moderate growth, supported by resilient transport demand and ongoing agricultural activity,” a research analyst said. “However, the recent increase in domestic fuel prices may temper near-term consumption growth, particularly in discretionary mobility.”

Furnace oil sales fell 57% month-on-month to 44,000 MT, reflecting lower power generation demand following a seasonal spike in the previous month.

HSD volumes declined 21% from January to 523,000 MT, but remained 22% higher year-on-year, supported by continued transportation activity and demand from the agriculture sector.

Meanwhile, petrol showed relatively stable demand. Sales dropped 3% month-on-month to 621,000 MT, though they were still 12% higher than a year earlier, indicating sustained consumer mobility.

“Relatively stable economic activity and structurally strong demand for petrol and HSD are likely to remain the primary drivers for the sector in the near term,” the analyst added.

Among companies, Pakistan State Oil (PSO) retained its market leadership with 537,000 MT of sales in February, down 14% from January but up 14% year-on-year as stronger diesel demand supported annual growth.

Attock Petroleum Ltd. (APL) reported 102,000 MT, declining 24% month-on-month while remaining broadly flat compared with the same month last year due to lower diesel and petrol volumes.

Meanwhile, WAFI Energy posted 109,000 MT, down 11% from January but up 30% year-on-year, continuing to gain market share amid network expansion and stronger retail penetration.

For the first eight months of fiscal year 2026, total industry sales reached 10.96 million MT, up 4% year-on-year. The increase was driven by 6% growth in HSD and 4% growth in petrol, while furnace oil sales fell 34%, reflecting Pakistan’s gradual shift away from furnace-based power generation.

During the period, PSO sold 4.61 million MT, down 3% year-on-year, while APL posted 899,000 MT, also 3% lower than last year. WAFI Energy recorded 897,000 MT, rising 18% year-on-year, highlighting continued gains in market share.