Indus Waters Treaty threats could spark new flashpoint

Pakistan's decades-old Indus Waters Treaty with India is facing its most serious challenge in years, according to Kamran Khan, who said growing tensions over the water-sharing agreement could have major consequences for regional stability, food security and Pakistan's economy.

Speaking on the latest episode of On My Radar, Khan said the 66-year-old treaty had prevented water disputes between the two nuclear-armed neighbors for more than half a century but was now under severe strain following India's threats regarding the agreement after the May 2025 conflict.

Khan said the dispute extends far beyond river flows, describing it as "a battle for the survival, agriculture and existence of Pakistan's 250 million people."

He said Pakistan's economy and agricultural sector depend heavily on the treaty, under which the country developed the Indus Basin Irrigation System, the world's largest integrated canal network.

According to Khan, the irrigation system waters nearly 35 million acres of farmland, while more than 90% of Pakistan's food production depends on it.

Khan said tensions have intensified because India is constructing 17 hydropower projects on rivers covered by the treaty, projects that Pakistan strongly opposes.

He said Pakistan argues the projects could give New Delhi what it describes as "hydro hegemony" – the ability to exert strategic control over water resources.

Khan said Pakistan's position against any attempt by India to suspend or alter the treaty rests on four fundamental points.

He added that Pakistan views the Indus Waters Treaty not merely as a water-sharing agreement but as a symbol of peace, stability and confidence-building in South Asia. Weakening the treaty, he said, could have far-reaching consequences for regional food security, water resources and overall stability.

The program also referenced the views of Lt. Gen. (retd) Muhammad Saeed, a former chief of general staff.