National Accounts Committee revises FY25 GDP growth rate to 2.68%

Pakistan’s National Accounts Committee approved revised economic growth estimates for the first and second quarters of fiscal year 2024-25, showing slight adjustments in key sectors amid fluctuating performance in agriculture, industry and services.

The committee revised overall GDP growth for the first quarter to 1.37%, up from the previous estimate of 1.34%, while the second quarter saw a downward revision to 1.53% from 1.73%. Provisional GDP growth for the ongoing fiscal year is set at 2.68%.

Sector-Wise Revisions

In agriculture, first-quarter growth was revised upward to 0.84% from 0.74%, driven by improvements in other crops, which rose from 0.43% to 5.53%, and forestry, which recovered from -2.07% to 0.79%. However, second-quarter growth was lowered to 0.79% from 1.10% due to a sharp decline in important crops, which fell from -7.65% to -12.09%, despite gains in other crops, forestry and fishing.

Industrial activity contracted further in both quarters, with the first quarter revised to -0.91% from -0.66% due to declines in electricity, gas and water supply, which dropped to -2.30% from +1.37%. The second quarter’s industrial growth was also revised downward to -0.99% from -0.18%, primarily due to a steep drop in utilities, which fell to -3.40% compared to an earlier estimate of 7.71%.

The services sector showed slight improvements, with first-quarter growth revised to 2.28% from 2.21% and second-quarter growth adjusted to 2.59% from 2.57%, supported by wholesale and retail trade, transportation, information and communication, and public administration.

Third-Quarter Performance

The economy grew by 2.40% in the third quarter, with mixed sectoral trends. Agriculture expanded by 1.18%, led by other crops at 4.84% and livestock at 4.42%, despite an 11.14% decline in important crops. Industry contracted by 1.14%, dragged down by mining at -3.96%, large-scale manufacturing at -0.89%, and utilities at -7.72%. Services grew by 3.99%, with strong performances in information and communication at 18.44%, finance at 10.65%, and public administration at 13.73%.

Annual Revisions

The committee finalized GDP growth for fiscal year 2022-23 at -0.21%, slightly better than the earlier estimate of -0.22%, and revised 2023-24 growth to 2.51% from 2.50%.

Key sector highlights for 2024-25 included a 1.53% decline in large-scale manufacturing. Electricity, gas and water supply grew by 28.88%, aided by a low base effect. Construction rose by 6.61% due to increased public and private spending. Services expanded by 2.91%, with transport at 2.20% and information technology at 6.48% leading growth.

Economic Size and Per Capita Income

Pakistan’s economy now stands at 114.7 trillion rupees ($410.96 billion), up from 105.1 trillion rupees ($371.66 billion) the previous year. Per capita income was estimated at 509,174 rupees, though official figures will be updated after revised population projections based on the 2023 census.

The latest data reflects a recovering but uneven economy, with agriculture and services partially offsetting industrial declines. Further revisions are expected as more data becomes available.