Pakistan's rice production is forecast to cross 9.5 million tons this fiscal

Pakistan's rice production for the 2024-25 fiscal year is forecast to reach between 9.5 million and 9.7 million tons, according to agriculture expert Hamid Malik.

Official figures have yet to be released, but a recent U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report aligns with this estimate, forecasting production at 9.5 million tons. This marks a 3.65% decline in potential area and yield compared to previous seasons.

Pakistan's rice exports are projected to decline by 11.48% year over year for the 2024-25 marketing year, with estimates at 5.8 million tons.

The USDA attributed this to limited domestic stocks, increased competition from Vietnam and Myanmar, and reduced demand from key markets such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

Despite a record-breaking export volume of 6 million tons last year, Pakistani exporters have already shipped over 4 million tons in the first eight months of the current fiscal year.

However, achieving the 5.8 million ton export target may prove challenging due to intensified competition and shifting global market dynamics.

India's recent re-entry into the rice export market, following the lifting of its white rice export ban in September, is expected to alter demand dynamics significantly.

S&P Global predicts bearish trends in the market as suppliers adjust to India's pricing, making competition fiercer.

In Indonesian rice tenders, Pakistani rice has remained competitively priced against Indian, Vietnamese, and Thai supplies. Indonesia, the world's fourth-largest rice producer, has emerged as a major buyer of Pakistani rice due to production shortfalls.

In fiscal year 2024, Indonesia's state procurement agency, Bulog, awarded 13 lots to Pakistani suppliers, totaling 372,550 tons of 5% broken white rice.

Malaysia and the Philippines also continue to be significant buyers of Pakistani rice. Meanwhile, exports to Bangladesh, primarily a parboiled rice market dominated by India, have begun to grow, with Pakistan supplying 60,000 tons of white rice this year and expected increases in the coming months.

Pakistani exporters aim to diversify their markets, targeting non-traditional regions in Africa, Central and South America, and the Far East, with a goal of achieving $5 billion in rice exports by 2025.

Pakistan remains one of the top five global rice exporters, benefiting from favorable planting conditions and sufficient irrigation water, suggesting a promising harvest despite the challenges ahead.