Taliban’s Afghanistan sees economic gains but faces diplomatic isolation

Afghanistan has marked three years since the Taliban regained control, but no country formally recognizes its government. Since the fall of President Ashraf Ghani's administration on August 15, 2021, the Taliban has maintained a firm grip on the nation's governance.

Afghanistan holds diplomatic contacts with China, Russia, Pakistan, the UAE, and Qatar, yet these countries have refrained from formally acknowledging the Taliban-led "Islamic Emirate". This lack of recognition impacts Afghanistan's international relations, economy, and political image.

The Taliban era today is notably different from its past. While Afghan citizens once faced strict limitations, current policies allow for internet use and crowded sports events. Women still hold jobs in sectors like health and media, but educational restrictions persist. Girls are permitted schooling only up to the primary level, barring them from higher education.

"Afghanistan is the only country in the world where girls face a ban beyond Grade 6," Human Rights Watch stated in a recent report.

Economically, Afghanistan has stabilized somewhat. The GDP, which contracted by 6% in 2021, has improved, reaching 4% growth in 2023. Inflation has also dropped from 20% to -5.4%, while the Afghan currency has strengthened against regional peers. Exports hit a 20-year high, and tax collection has improved.

Despite some economic successes, Afghanistan still lacks support from the U.S., EU, World Bank, IMF, and international donors, with frozen foreign assets and limited trade partners. Dependency on Pakistan for transit trade remains high, while ties with China and Russia provide additional, though limited, avenues for trade.