Why Pakistan has become the second most terrorism-affected country globally

Pakistan has emerged as the second most terrorism-affected country globally, according to the Global Terrorism Index 2025 released by the Institute for Economics and Peace. The South Asian nation leapt two spots from its previous ranking, overtaking Syria and Mali, reversing the global trend that saw terrorism deaths decline by 13 percent worldwide.

The annual report, which measures terrorism impact across 163 countries, revealed Pakistan experienced 1,081 terrorism-related deaths in 2024, marking a 45 percent increase from the previous year. The number of terrorist incidents more than doubled to 1,099, crossing the thousand-attack threshold for the first time since 2011.

Defined threats

Pakistan is the primary target of one of the world's four deadliest terrorist organizations—the TTP, which ranks alongside Islamic State, JNIM, and al-Shabaab. While those other groups operate transnationally, the TTP focuses almost exclusively on Pakistan, claiming responsibility for 482 attacks in 2024.

The Global Terrorism Index 2025 report highlights alarming increases in terrorist violence, noting that "of the major terrorist organizations globally, TTP was responsible for the largest increase in deaths in 2024, which rose by 90 per cent to 558 deaths."

The report further documents that "attacks by Baloch separatist groups have increased significantly from 116 in 2023 to 504 in 2024. Deaths surged over fourfold to 388, from 88 in the previous year," illustrating a dramatic escalation in violence from multiple extremist organizations.

"What we're witnessing in Pakistan is a unique security situation with two mature threats," explains Muhammad Amir Rana, founder of the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS).

"Surprisingly, the BLA has become an even greater concern than the TTP despite fewer attacks, as they've evolved to operating openly on highways, seizing control of roads with organized groups. This represents an extremely grave situation -- we've entered a new level of insurgency," he said.

Afghanistan's shadow

Pakistan's deteriorating security coincides with the Taliban's return to power in neighboring Afghanistan in 2021. The report links these developments, noting that "terrorism has increased significantly in Pakistan since the Taliban's rise to power."

"What we're seeing is a new phase of conflict. With American forces gone, we witness an ideological war between Taliban's Deobandi interpretation and Salafi militants who reject it as un-Islamic," explains terrorism journalist Syed Fakhar Kakakhel. "With $7 billion worth of foreign weapons left in Afghanistan, this ideological battle inevitably affects Pakistan's security."

Pakistani officials including its top military spokesperson have repeatedly accused Afghanistan of harboring TTP fighters, an allegation the Taliban government denies. In December 2024, Pakistan conducted airstrikes on suspected TTP hideouts in Afghanistan's Paktika province, highlighting the cross-border dimension.

In this screengrab spokesperson for the Pakistan Army, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, addressing the media at the Military's General Headquarters on Septermber 5, 2024. Facebook / OfficialDGISPR

According to Rana, Pakistan's counterterrorism strategy suffers from fundamental diplomatic missteps. "All our diplomatic channels go through Kabul and the Haqqanis, while the real power center is in Kandahar," he explains.

Ironically, he notes that the Taliban figures most critical of TTP terrorists operating in Pakistan are actually based in Kandahar, not Kabul where Pakistan focuses its diplomatic engagement. This diplomatic disconnect, Rana argues, undermines Pakistan's ability to effectively address cross-border terrorism, making it imperative that the country "urgently correct our diplomatic approach."

Chinese interests in the crosshairs

The index reveals that "Baloch militant groups such as the BLA and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) continue to take advantage of ongoing instability within Pakistan," targeting Chinese nationals and infrastructure projects, particularly those linked to the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Though China ranks relatively low (49th) on the terrorism index, its substantial economic interests in Pakistan have become prime targets for Baloch separatists, leaving Chinese investments increasingly vulnerable.

Rana critiques Pakistan's security resource allocation with regards to Baloch separatists as fundamentally flawed. "The federal government makes promises and secures agreements -- like the recent police training equipment from China -- but these resources only go to already well-equipped forces like Islamabad Police," he observes.

Meanwhile, areas facing the brunt of terrorist activity receive minimal support. "The areas truly needing resources -- KP and Karachi -- receive no federal attention," Rana said, highlighting what he calls "misplaced priorities" in protecting Chinese interests. Despite official rhetoric about valuing Chinese partnerships, Rana believes Pakistan continues "creating 'easy pieces' and giving wrong advice that won't solve these problems."

Bucking global trends

The terror epicenter has shifted from the Middle East to Africa's Sahel region, with Iraq's 99 percent reduction in deaths highlighting progress elsewhere.

"The Sahel remains the global epicenter of terrorism, accounting for over half of all terrorism-related deaths in 2024 with the number of countries affected increasing. Five of the ten countries most impacted by terrorism are in this region," according to the Global Terrorism Index 2025 report.

But unlike the Sahel nations, where weak governance and porous borders create power vacuums for terror groups, Pakistan's situation is more alarming precisely because it has a stronger state apparatus, professional military, and functioning intelligence services.

While global terrorism deaths continue their downward slide to 7,555 in 2024 from the 2015 peak of 10,882, Pakistan has seen five straight years of increasing casualties. And Pakistan's deterioration is no temporary spike—the country has stubbornly remained among the ten most terrorism-affected nations since 2011 while others have moved in and out of the rankings.

Rana's assessment paints a bleak picture of Pakistan's counterterrorism strategy. "We keep hearing announcements about operations like Azm-e-Istehkam, but where is it actually being implemented? What's its progress?" he questions.

This accountability gap, he suggests, points to "a worsening security situation with no clear strategy in sight."