Pakistan achieves ‘surprising’ $110 million payments surplus

Analysts and experts in Pakistan were left surprised on Monday when the central bank’s data showed a current account surplus of $110 million in contrast to their expectation of a deficit.

According to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday, the current account recorded a surplus of $110 million, compared to a deficit of $52 million in the same month last year.

Month-on-month, the current account balance reversed the deficit, which stood at $325 million in August.

The deficit in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (July-September) increased to $594 million as compared to $502 million in the same period last year.

Data discrepancy

The analysts’ expectation of a current account deficit in September was based on the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics’ (PBS) calculation of the trade deficit (experts-imports).

The data released by PBS earlier this week showed a trade deficit of $3.40 billion, with $5.9 billion worth of imports and $2.5 billion exports.

However, the SBP data showed a trade deficit of $2.39 billion, a difference of over $1 billion compared to the PBS data.

An analyst said the difference of $1 billion in data released by PBS and SPB is quite significant. Such a massive difference “has never been seen before”.

What is a current account?

A country's current account is the balance of its international transactions. It tracks the flow of income from exports, investment, remittances, foreign aid, and expenses paid for imports and debt financing. If the inflow of money into the country is higher than outflows, the current account is in surplus.

If the outflow is greater, the balance is in a deficit. This current account balance is an important indicator to gauge a country’s economic health. If the current account deficit widens significantly, it threatens the country’s ability to pay for imports or service the debt owed to bilateral or multilateral partners.