Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb risks raise fears of wider Middle East war

The U.S.-Iran war is no longer confined to the Persian Gulf and is spreading across the Middle East, with two of the world's most important energy routes facing military threats, Kamran Khan said in his latest episode of “On My Radar.”

The Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are both facing growing security risks, raising concerns that a wider conflict could trigger a surge in oil prices, inflation and economic instability around the world.

The most worrying development is emerging from Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthi forces have taken control of the coastal city of Mocha, bringing them closer to the strategically important Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow waterway linking the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and, through the Suez Canal, to Europe. It is a vital route for global trade and energy supplies. Any disruption to shipping there would have consequences far beyond Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

For Saudi Arabia, however, the threat is particularly serious. The Strait of Hormuz is already under severe pressure because of the U.S.-Iran war. Saudi Arabia can move oil from its eastern coast through pipelines to Yanbu on the Red Sea and export it through the Red Sea as an alternative route. But the growing Houthi threat now puts that route at risk as well.

“That means Iranian pressure on Hormuz on one side and the Houthi advance near Bab el-Mandeb on the other,” Khan said. “Saudi oil export security appears to be at risk from both sides.”

The intensity of Saudi concerns can also be gauged from an Axios report that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke twice by phone with President Donald Trump the previous day and requested U.S. military action against the Houthis.

Trump rejected the request, according to the report, but the U.S. administration offered to provide Saudi Arabia with intelligence on the Houthis and information about potential targets.

The threat to Saudi Arabia is not limited to maritime security. In recent days, the Houthis have carried out missile and drone attacks on four Saudi cities. Saudi Arabia responded with airstrikes against Houthi positions inside Yemen.

The developments are significant because a ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis that had held for the past four years now appears to be rapidly breaking down. The two sides are again moving toward a state of war, opening another major front alongside the U.S.-Iran conflict.

The immediate impact has been felt in global oil markets. Brent crude has risen well above $100 per barrel and at one point Friday approached the dangerous threshold of $110.

Market concerns are not limited to current supply disruptions. Investors are also worried that severe disruption to both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb could deliver a major shock to the global energy system, with consumers around the world ultimately bearing the cost.

Higher oil prices would increase transportation costs and raise the cost of electricity and industrial production. Inflation could return, central banks could be forced to raise interest rates, and an already sluggish global economy could come under severe pressure.

The situation is becoming more serious as diplomatic options to contain the war narrow. Trust between the United States and Iran has effectively collapsed, attacks have resumed and there is currently no strong negotiating process that appears capable of stopping the conflict quickly.

Several countries, including Pakistan, are maintaining diplomatic contacts, but the pace of developments on the battlefield appears to be faster than diplomacy.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke by phone the previous day first with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and then with Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir. They agreed to continue diplomatic efforts to promote stability and security in the region.

Pakistan had earlier conveyed a message to Iran on Tuesday asking Tehran to use its influence to help stop Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Iran's response was that it does not control the Houthis.

At this point, the Makkah Defense Agreement raises an important question, Khan said.

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey have agreed to a defense framework under which an attack on any one of the three countries would be considered an attack on all three.

Yet there has been no decision so far on joint Pakistani, Turkish and Saudi military action in response to Houthi attacks.

“The question is where the limit lies after which this agreement will take practical shape?” Khan said.

Major Houthi attacks on Saudi oil installations and severe damage to Saudi shipping in Bab el-Mandeb are already being reported, but Pakistan and Turkey, the other two parties to the Makkah agreement, are exercising restraint for now.

“If this patience runs out and Pakistan and Turkey also take a military role, the nature of this war will change dramatically,” Khan said.

“It will no longer be just a U.S.-Iran war. It will not be only a Yemen and Houthi crisis.”

Instead, he said, the conflict could develop into a confrontation between Iran and its allies on one side and the United States and its regional partners on the other, with the world's most important energy supply routes caught in the middle.

“That is the biggest threat today,” Khan said.

“The Strait of Hormuz is already in crisis, the threat to Bab el-Mandeb is rapidly increasing, and Saudi oil exports could be caught between these two gateways of war.”

“If both these gateways become unsafe at the same time, the next crisis will not be limited to the Middle East. The whole world will pay the price.”

The episode also featured Air Vice Marshal (retired) Shahzad Chaudhry, a senior defense affairs analyst.