Millions may be forced to move as climate change hits South Asia, UN says

Climate change in South Asia could force up to 40.5 million people to move by 2050 in a worst-case scenario, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) chief Amy Pope told AFP in New Delhi on Friday. Rising seas, flooding and drought are threatening homes and farmland.

How does climate change affect migration in South Asia?

Climate change makes it harder for people to produce food or feed their livestock, which raises the likelihood of displacement. Moving is often the first adaptation. Heat is also pushing people into Indian cities, accelerating urbanization, according to IOM chief Amy Pope.

In the Himalayas, Pope pointed to Nepal's August 26 disaster, when a mountain and glacier collapse triggered deadly flooding. IOM sent humanitarian aid to help.

"When they can't produce food, when they can't feed their livestock, it increases the likelihood of displacement," said Pope. "The first adaptation is often for people to move."

She said climate change was also accelerating urbanization in India. "As people seek shelter from heat, they're going into urban centers," she said.

Why is South Asia so vulnerable to climate change?

The risks are particularly acute in South Asia, where vast populations and limited resources leave many communities exposed. Pope said funding to help residents prepare for climate change remains inadequate.

"There's a lack of urgency globally about the risks that vulnerable communities are facing," Pope said. She argued that prevention costs far less than response.

"The cost of a humanitarian disaster is in the billions. The cost of investing in some of the resilience measures can be far less," she said.

Can AI help South Asia prepare for climate displacement?

Better data and artificial intelligence could help governments identify communities at risk before disaster strikes, Pope said. "With the advancements in AI forecasting, you can now better anticipate those communities that are at high risk of displacement," she said.

Authorities can combine weather forecasts with information about local livelihoods to identify which communities most need help. "If you know a community is at risk, we don't need to wait until they're displaced to respond," she said.

Measures could include improving farming methods, training people for other jobs and, where necessary, relocating communities repeatedly hit by floods or drought. Finding the money for such programs is a major obstacle, Pope said, because governments often struggle to navigate the systems available to fund climate adaptation.

India's investments in early-warning systems, disaster response and technology offer grounds for optimism, she said. But no government can meet the scale of the challenge alone.

How can migration help people adapt to climate change?

International migration can help people earn a living while filling labor shortages abroad. South Asia already has established migration routes, offering opportunities to build on existing links.

"Here we have government partners who recognize both the threats to their communities but they're also using migration as a tool for development," Pope said. She warned that growing demand for workers must be matched by safe, legal routes to employment. Otherwise, migrants risk exploitation by traffickers and smugglers, including through fraudulent overseas job offers.

India's technological capacity could also help its workers compete internationally as artificial intelligence reshapes employment, Pope said. AI could threaten some jobs, particularly those involving routine analysis of documents and reports, but other sectors still rely heavily on human labor.

"If we can marry that capacity with the labor mobility, so that the workers are being skilled for those jobs as they're emerging, they will be ahead," Pope said. "This is a place where I have more optimism than in places where we're dealing with the most acute crises," she said.