Pakistan targets 4% GDP growth in FY2026-27 on agriculture, industry recovery

Pakistan has set a GDP growth target of 4.0% for fiscal year 2026-27, aiming for broad-based expansion across agriculture, industry and services.

The target compares with a provisional estimate of 3.7% for the outgoing fiscal year 2025-26, according to government documents.

What is Pakistan's GDP growth target for FY2026-27?

Pakistan has set a 4.0% GDP growth target for FY2026-27, up from an estimated 3.7% in the current fiscal year. The plan relies on a rebound in agriculture, a recovery in industrial output and continued expansion in services.

Nominal GDP is projected to reach PKR 133.77 trillion, up from a provisional PKR 117.99 trillion in FY2025-26.

How is agriculture expected to perform next year?

The agriculture sector has been assigned a growth target of 3.8% for FY2026-27, compared with an estimated 2.9% in the current year. Important crops are projected to grow by 3.6% after a near-flat 0.6% this year, while other crops are targeted at 4.2% growth.

Livestock, the largest agricultural sub-sector, is expected to expand by 3.9%, with forestry and fishing targeted at 3.2% and 1.5%, respectively.

Commodity-producing sectors overall are expected to grow by 3.9% in FY2026-27, up from an estimated 3.2% this year.

What are the targets for industry and manufacturing?

The industrial sector is projected to grow by 4.0% in FY2026-27, compared with an estimated 3.5% in the current fiscal year. Manufacturing is expected to be the main driver, with overall manufacturing growth targeted at 5.8%.

Large-scale manufacturing is projected to expand by 4.5%, while small-scale manufacturing is targeted at 7.2%.

Construction growth is set at 2.2%. Electricity, gas and water supply activities are projected to grow by 1.1% after an estimated sharp contraction this year. Mining and quarrying growth is projected at 0.6%.

Which services segments are set to grow the fastest?

The services sector, Pakistan's largest contributor to GDP, is projected to expand by 4.2% in FY2026-27, marginally above the estimated 4.1% growth this year.

Information and communication is expected to record the fastest growth among services at 7.7%, followed by financial and insurance activities at 4.5%.

Human health and social work activities are projected to grow by 4.3%, while wholesale and retail trade is targeted at 4.2%.

Transport, storage and communications are expected to expand by 3.7%, and accommodation and food services by 4.0%. Public administration is projected at 4.0%, with education at 3.6%.