Pakistan's cotton arrivals improve but still much lower than last year's

Cotton arrivals have dropped by 59% to 2.040 million bales as of September 30, according to the Pakistan Cotton Ginners' Association. This sharp decline is primarily due to reduced cultivation areas driven by weaker farmer economics. However, there has been some improvement in arrivals compared to the last reported numbers, with the YoY decline easing from 64% to 59%.

The reduction in local cotton production is expected to increase the need for imports. During FY24, Pakistan imported 204,890 tons (1.281 million bales) for $448 million. For FY25, demand is projected to reach 11 million bales, while domestic production is estimated at 7 million bales, necessitating the import of around 4 million bales. Based on the average import prices in the first two months of FY25, the cotton import bill is expected to surge to $1,307 million—nearly 3 times higher than last year's $448 million.

In Punjab, cotton arrivals have decreased by 65% YoY to 727 thousand bales, while in Sindh, arrivals have fallen by 56% YoY to 1,313 thousand bales. Notably, Sindh has shown some improvement, with the decline in arrivals easing from 63% YoY in the last fortnight to 56% YoY.

District-wise breakdown:

In Punjab

• Rahim Yar Khan and Mianwali experienced the sharpest year-on-year declines, with drops of 95% and 94%, bringing bale arrivals down to 12,117 and 2,900, respectively.
• Bhakkar, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, and Multan saw decreases of 79%, 76%, 76%, and 73%, respectively.
• Muzaffargarh, Layyah, Dera Ghazi Khan, and Lodhran registered year-on-year declines of 66%, 59%, 58%, and 52%, respectively.
• Khanewal and Rajanpur reported declines of 48%, 47%, and 45%, respectively.
• Toba Tek Singh, Jhang, Vehari, and Sahiwal witnessed year-on-year reductions of 43%, 42%, 41%, and 40%, respectively.
• Pakpattan and Kasur reported no bale arrivals, compared to 5,240 bales and 5,000 bales in the previous year.

In Sindh:

• Dadu and Ghotki recorded the largest year-on-year declines, with drops of 97% and 90%, respectively.
• Khairpur, Naushero Feroze, Nawabshah, and Sukkur saw year-on-year decreases of 79%, 77%, 74%, and 73%, respectively.
• Mirpur Khas experienced a 63% year-on-year decline.
• Jamshoro, Hyderabad, Sanghar, and Badin reported year-on-year declines of 52%, 47%, 40%, and 26%, respectively.