Pakistan urea sales seen hitting record in December on heavy discounting

Pakistan’s urea sales are expected to hit an all-time high in December as fertilizer makers and dealers pushed volumes through aggressive discounting, sharply reducing industry inventories, according to Topline Securities.

Urea offtake in December is projected at 1.356 million tons, up 65% from November and 37% from a year earlier, Topline Securities said in a note dated Jan. 2. The surge was driven by “push sales from companies and dealers through higher discount offerings”, the brokerage said.

The strong December performance lifts full-year 2025 urea sales to an estimated 6.73 million tons, up 2% from 6.57 million tons in 2024. Sales in the first 11 months of 2025, however, were down 4% year over year, underscoring the sharp year-end rebound.

Topline said Engro Fertilizers Ltd. maintained discounts of around PKR 400 per bag during December, although these were rolled back to about PKR 150 per bag at the start of the new year. Fauji Fertilizer Co. also offered discounts of PKR 150 to PKR 200 per bag during the same period.

As a result of the sales push, closing urea inventories are expected to fall to about 315,000 tons in December, down sharply from 1.13 million tons in November. “This decline is significant for the industry, as the cost of maintaining inventory levels will decrease and subsequently discounts are also rolled back,” Topline said.

By company, Fatima Group is expected to hold the highest inventory at 133,000 tons, followed by Engro Fertilizers with 88,000 tons and Fauji Fertilizer Co. with 56,000 tons. Engro’s inventory position improved markedly from about 504,000 tons in November.

Engro Fertilizers is projected to post record urea sales of 644,000 tons in December, up 140% from November and 56% from a year earlier. Fauji Fertilizer’s sales are estimated at 377,000 tons, down 3% month on month, while Fatima Group’s sales are expected to jump 107% from November to 259,000 tons.

In contrast, diammonium phosphate (DAP) sales are expected to remain weak. December DAP offtake is estimated at about 80,000 tons, down 67% from November and 42% year over year. Full-year 2025 DAP sales are projected at around 1.3 million tons, an 18% decline from the previous year.

Company data indicate Fauji Fertilizer and Engro Fertilizers are likely to record DAP sales of about 54,000 tons and 12,000 tons, respectively, in December. Closing DAP inventories are estimated at roughly 219,000 tons.

Looking ahead, Topline Securities said urea sales are expected to normalize in 2026 following the year-end push. “Considering the low inventory levels, this waives the possibility of exports for the time being,” the brokerage said.