The Indus River System Authority has approved anticipated provincial water withdrawals of 67.5 million acre-feet for the Kharif season.
The IRSA Advisory Committee (IAC) met on Monday in Islamabad to deliberate on and approve the water availability criteria for the April–September cropping season.
Under the approved plan, Punjab is set to receive the largest share at 33.36 MAF, compared to 28.36 MAF last year and a 10-year average of 31.975 MAF. Sindh has been allocated 30.403 MAF, up from 28.95 MAF last year. Balochistan's allocation stands at 2.87 MAF against 2.18 MAF last year, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — covered through the Chashma Right Bank Canal only — is allocated 0.82 MAF, down from 1.07 MAF last year.
The total anticipated withdrawal of 67.451 MAF compares to 60.558 MAF in Kharif 2025 and a 10-year average of 62.252 MAF.
Rim-station inflows and shortfall
The committee based its projections on anticipated Rim-Station inflows of 103.3 MAF — comprising 24.48 MAF for the Early Kharif (April–June 10) and 78.81 MAF for the Late Kharif period.
System losses in the Indus Zone were set at 25% for April and 35% from May 1 to June 10, subject to review in the first week of May based on actual reach-wise observations. Late Kharif losses were estimated at 15%. For the Jhelum-Chenab Zone, losses were agreed at 5% during Early Kharif and nil during Late Kharif.
The early-season shortfall of 15% is to be reviewed in the first week of May.
Pakistan Meteorological Department representatives informed the committee that rainfall during April–June is expected to be normal to above normal, particularly over western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, western Punjab, Gilgit-Baltistan and northern Balochistan. Eastern Sindh has an enhanced probability of above-normal rainfall.
Temperatures, however, are likely to remain above normal across the country, with pronounced anomalies over northern regions — a factor that could accelerate glacial melt but also drive higher evaporation losses.
Rabi season review
The committee also reviewed the concluded Rabi season (October 2025–March 2026), noting that actual inflows were 21.78 MAF against the anticipated 22.02 MAF — a marginal 1% shortfall broadly in line with earlier projections.
Total system storage as of March 31 was recorded at 2.31 MAF, significantly higher than last year's 0.38 MAF and the 10-year average of 1.35 MAF. Downstream Kotri releases during the season stood at 3.6 MAF. Provincial utilization remained slightly below allocations, primarily because of reduced provincial demand.
Tarbela Dam operations
The committee was informed that WAPDA, in a meeting held at the Ministry of Water Resources on April 6, gave firm commitments on Tarbela dam operations. The T4 Hydropower Plant, with a capacity of 45,000 cusecs, is to become operational after May 7, while the T4 Low Level Outlet is expected to be available for wet testing around May 8 on a tentative basis.
The auxiliary spillway is to become available once the reservoir reaches RL 1,505 ft, and the service spillway at RL 1,511 ft.
To facilitate ongoing construction at the Tarbela 5 Hydropower Project, WAPDA requested that reservoir levels be kept below RL 1,470 ft until May 31 and below RL 1,482 ft until June 30 — a request the committee agreed to, with the caveat that wet cycle conditions be monitored to ensure these limits remain workable. WAPDA was directed to communicate any operational constraints at Tarbela to all stakeholders promptly.
The committee expressed serious concern over the accelerating depletion of live storage capacity at Tarbela Reservoir. Live storage has declined from 5.83 MAF in May 2022 to 5.6 MAF as of March, according to WAPDA's latest survey.
A particularly sharp reduction of 0.15 MAF was recorded during 2025 alone, primarily attributed to sediment inflows that exceeded trends observed over the past 15 years. As a result of delta advancement within the reservoir, the Minimum Operating Level has been revised upward to RL 1,402 ft.
Overall, Tarbela's live storage capacity has fallen by approximately 48% since the dam became operational. The committee directed WAPDA to submit a comprehensive report on sedimentation trends and mitigation measures to the IAC.
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