Poultry prices drive slight uptick in weekly inflation in Pakistan

Pakistan's short-term inflation edged up 0.15% for the week ending April 30, 2025, driven primarily by rising poultry prices, official data showed on Friday.

The biggest price increases were observed in eggs, which surged 5.55%, followed by chicken at 1.84%. Other commodities also saw price hikes, including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (1.03%), bread (0.55%), bananas (0.54%), pulse moong (0.52%), sugar (0.26%) and rice basmati broken (0.18%).

Conversely, prices of key food items declined, with onions dropping 5.59%, tomatoes falling 4.56%, garlic down 1.78%, pulse Mash sliding 1.57%, wheat flour easing 1.43%, mustard oil dipping 0.77% and vegetable ghee down 0.31%.

Despite the weekly increase, inflation compared to the same period last year showed a decline of 2.41%. The country’s headline inflation for April settled at 0.3%, largely due to falling food prices, lower housing and transport costs, and softer global commodity prices.

Analysts expect inflation to gradually rise in the coming months as base effects diminish, but anticipate it will remain within the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) target range of 5%–7%.

“Despite a significantly positive real interest rate, we expect the central bank to maintain the policy rate at its current level in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, as the impact of the 1,000 basis points cut in the benchmark rate is yet to fully reflect in the real economy due to transmission lag,” an analyst at Insight Securities said.

Uncertainty surrounding global trade markets due to tariff tensions and geopolitical concerns along the eastern border with India continues to weigh on the macroeconomic outlook. However, analysts note that successful approval from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) board could provide support to Pakistan’s external accounts.