Saudi Aramco says it can restore most oil exports via Red Sea route

Saudi Aramco said it could restore about 70% of its normal crude exports within days by redirecting shipments through the Red Sea, as the company’s chief executive warned that a prolonged U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict could have “catastrophic consequences” for the global economy.

According to Bloomberg, Amin Nasser, the CEO of the world’s largest oil producer, said during an earnings call that Aramco is rapidly increasing export capacity at its Red Sea port of Yanbu. The move would allow roughly five million barrels of oil per day to reach global markets without passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping chokepoint that has been largely closed by the conflict.

“There will be catastrophic consequences for the oil market the longer this continues, and drastic impacts on the global economy,” Nasser said during the call.

Saudi Arabia typically exports about seven million barrels of crude a day. Most shipments normally leave from terminals on the kingdom’s east coast into the Gulf, while only a small portion is exported via the Red Sea.

Iran’s threats to shipping have effectively shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off much of the region’s oil supply from international markets. The disruption has affected roughly 20% of global oil supplies, with Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates reducing production as storage capacity fills up.

The comments mark the first public warning from Aramco since the conflict escalated following U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran earlier this month. Gulf states have increasingly highlighted the potential economic fallout of supply disruptions.

Oil prices surge

Qatar’s energy minister issued a similar warning last week, saying the crisis could “bring down the economies of the world” if energy supplies remain constrained.

Energy infrastructure in the region has also come under attack. A drone strike Tuesday triggered a fire at the Ruwais refinery in the United Arab Emirates, forcing the shutdown of the facility, according to people familiar with the matter. The refinery has a capacity of about 900,000 barrels per day and is among the largest in the world.

Oil markets have reacted sharply to the conflict. Brent crude briefly surged to nearly $120 a barrel Monday — the highest level since June 2022 — before falling later in the day after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the war could end “very soon”.

G7 energy ministers are expected to meet Tuesday to discuss a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves through the International Energy Agency. The prospect of additional supply has helped push prices back toward $90 a barrel, though trading remains volatile.

Crude oil traded at roughly $60 a barrel at the start of the year.

The switch to Yanbu

Aramco has instructed customers to load cargoes from Yanbu because many tankers are unable to enter the Gulf, Nasser said.

The company plans to use the full 7 million-barrel-per-day capacity of its east-west pipeline, which transports crude from eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port.

The company’s west coast refineries process about 2 million barrels of crude per day. Aside from the Ras Tanura facility in the east — which was struck on March 2 — Aramco has not reduced refining operations, Nasser said.

Data from commodities analytics firm Kpler shows a surge in tanker bookings headed for Yanbu. The firm estimates Aramco’s Red Sea loading capacity at roughly 4.3 million to 4.5 million barrels per day.

Nasser did not disclose the company’s current production level but indicated that some grades of crude were temporarily curtailed.
“There’s a certain area where we have medium and heavy crude which we are not utilising for the time being,” he said. “We are meeting the majority of our customers’ requirements.”

Nasser added that Aramco’s spare capacity would allow it to restore production “in a matter of days” if facilities were forced to shut down.

The company also reported annual results Tuesday, posting adjusted net income of $104.7 billion for 2025, down 5% from the previous year.