SBP's gold reserves rise by PKR 985bn in two years on price surge

Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all key quantitative targets under its International Monetary Fund program, according to an analysis of available data. The finding strengthens expectations that the IMF's fourth Extended Fund Facility review and third Resilience and Sustainability Facility review will conclude smoothly in September. One indicator, tax revenue, is expected to fall short.

How many IMF targets is Pakistan expected to meet?

Pakistan is likely to meet almost all seven Quantitative Performance Criteria the IMF uses to assess program compliance for March and June 2026. These targets cover reserves, debt limits, fiscal surplus and social spending. Data for one indicator, new tax returns, is not yet publicly available.

An IMF team is expected to visit Pakistan in September 2026 to review performance against these targets. Criteria missed generally require approval from the IMF Executive Board before a review can proceed. Based on current data, most benchmarks appear on track.

Are Pakistan's reserves and fiscal targets on track?

Pakistan's Net International Reserves are expected to stay below negative USD 5 billion in March, against an IMF floor of negative USD 5.6 billion. In June, reserves are projected below negative USD 3.5 billion, compared with a benchmark of negative USD 4.8 billion.

The State Bank of Pakistan's Net Domestic Assets are estimated at PKR 12 trillion to PKR 13 trillion, comfortably below the IMF ceiling of roughly PKR 15.6 trillion to PKR 15.8 trillion. Foreign currency swaps stood at about USD 1.7 billion in March and USD 0.9 billion in June, both within agreed ceilings. Pakistan's primary surplus is also estimated to exceed its targets in both months.

Is Pakistan meeting its debt and spending commitments?

Government guarantees stood at PKR 4.3 trillion in December 2025, leaving substantial room against the IMF ceiling of PKR 5.8 trillion. Spending under the Benazir Income Support Programme is also expected to meet IMF requirements, with the revised FY2026 budget allocating PKR 706 billion against a floor of PKR 694 billion.

Why is tax collection a weak point?

FBR tax revenues, an indicative target rather than a formal performance criterion, are likely to remain below the agreed annual target. The analysis found the Federal Board of Revenue missed its target by about PKR 336 billion. Proceeds linked to a court verdict on the super tax could partly offset the shortfall, but overall collection is still expected to fall short.

Despite the revenue gap, the assessment said Pakistan's overall performance should allow the September review to proceed without major difficulty. Indicative criteria and structural benchmarks are generally expected to be rolled over or reset rather than block progress.

When did Pakistan last receive an IMF loan disbursement?

Pakistan's most recent IMF disbursement came on May 12, 2026, when the Fund released about USD 1.1 billion after completing the third EFF review and second RSF review. The amount included USD 1.1 billion under the EFF and about USD 220 million under the RSF, bringing total disbursements under both arrangements to roughly USD 4.8 billion.

The IMF approved Pakistan's 37-month EFF program in September 2024 for SDR 5.32 billion, equivalent to about USD 7 billion. It later approved a separate 28-month RSF arrangement in May 2025, giving Pakistan access to about USD 1.4 billion. Together, the two arrangements provide access to roughly USD 8.4 billion, of which about USD 4.8 billion had been disbursed as of May 2026.

The September review will be important for Pakistan to secure its next EFF tranche and further RSF financing, while demonstrating continued compliance with the reform program.