Tehran could withstand blockade for four months, CIA report shows

Efforts to end the US-Iran conflict showed little progress on Friday as fresh clashes erupted in and around the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported.

A US intelligence assessment suggested Tehran could withstand the naval blockade for several months, according to a US official familiar with the matter, with the findings first reported by the Washington Post.

What did the CIA report say about Iran's ability to withstand the blockade?

The CIA assessed that Iran would not face severe economic strain for roughly 90 to 120 days under the US blockade of its ports. One US official told the Washington Post that Iran's actual resilience may exceed even that estimate, saying the leadership had grown "more radical."

The findings appear to underscore the limits of US economic leverage in the conflict.

A senior intelligence official disputed that interpretation, however, calling the "claims" about the CIA analysis "false." The official said the blockade "is inflicting real, compounding damage, severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse." The competing assessments reflect broader disagreement within Washington over the effectiveness of the naval strategy.

Why is the US blocking the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran significantly restricted non-Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz following joint US-Israeli strikes on 28 February. Washington imposed its own maritime restrictions on Iranian vessels last month in response. The strait previously handled roughly one-fifth of global oil flows, and its disruption has sent Brent crude above $101 a barrel, though prices remain more than 6% down on the week.

Trump said on Thursday that the ceasefire, in place since 7 April, remained intact despite renewed tensions. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking after talks in Rome with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, questioned international hesitation to support US efforts to secure freedom of navigation. "Are you going to normalise a country claiming to control an international waterway?" he said. "Because if you normalise that, you've set a precedent that's going to get repeated in a dozen other places."

What clashes have been reported in the Strait of Hormuz?

Iranian media reported intermittent naval confrontations between Iranian forces and US vessels in the strait on Friday. The semi-official Fars news agency said engagements had occurred, while Tasnim later quoted a military source as saying the situation had stabilised but further clashes remained possible. The US military said it had struck two Iran-linked vessels attempting to enter an Iranian port, with a fighter jet targeting their smokestacks and forcing them to turn back.

Iranian media also reported that one crew member was killed, 10 were injured and four were missing following a US strike on an Iranian commercial vessel late Thursday. Washington has not confirmed those claims. Iran accused Washington of breaching the ceasefire, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi saying: "Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the US opts for a reckless military adventure."

What attacks hit the UAE and what was the regional response?

The United Arab Emirates said its air defences intercepted two ballistic missiles and three drones launched from Iran on Friday, with three people reported injured.

Abu Dhabi described the strikes as a "major escalation," coming after Trump announced and then quickly paused "Project Freedom," a naval escort initiative in the strait. During the broader conflict, Iran has repeatedly targeted Gulf states hosting US military facilities.

What sanctions has the US imposed on Iran?

The US Treasury announced sanctions on 10 individuals and entities, including firms in China and Hong Kong, accused of facilitating Iran's procurement of materials used in its Shahed drone programme. The Treasury warned of possible secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions engaged in sanctioned trade. The move comes days before Trump is scheduled to travel to China for talks with President Xi Jinping, adding geopolitical sensitivity to the escalating crisis.

Where do US-Iran diplomatic efforts stand?

Washington is awaiting Tehran's response to a proposal aimed at formally ending the war before moving to broader negotiations, including on Iran's nuclear program. "We should know something today," Rubio said in Rome. "We're expecting a response from them." Iran's foreign ministry said it was still reviewing the proposal, with no formal reply confirmed by Friday afternoon in Washington.