Stung by Iran war, Trump heads to Beijing in need of wins

US President Donald Trump travels to Beijing this week for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15, seeking limited trade deals and China's help in resolving his unpopular Iran war.

The visit comes as court rulings have blunted Trump's tariff ambitions and the Iran conflict has weighed on his approval ratings ahead of November's midterm elections. Analysts say Trump enters the talks from a position of diminished leverage.

Why does Trump need wins from his China visit?

Trump needs the Beijing summit to deliver visible foreign policy gains after the Iran war proved deeply unpopular at home, with over 60 percent of Americans disapproving of the conflict according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey. Court rulings have constrained his tariff strategy, narrowing his trade goals to deals on agricultural goods and Boeing jets. Analysts say Trump needs to show he can deliver stability, not just disruption.

Trump "kind of needs China more than China needs him," said Alejandro Reyes, a professor specializing in Chinese foreign policy at the University of Hong Kong.

"He needs a foreign policy victory: a victory that shows he is looking to ensure stability in the world and that he's not just disrupting global politics," Reyes added. The contrast with a year ago, when Trump predicted his tariffs would bring China to heel, is stark.

What will Trump and Xi Jinping discuss in Beijing?

The summit will be held at the Great Hall of the People, with the leaders also set to tour the UNESCO-heritage site Temple of Heaven, attend a state banquet and share tea and lunch together. Beyond the ceremonial program, Trump has said he will raise arms sales to Taiwan and the case of jailed media tycoon Jimmy Lai. Families of two Americans who have been imprisoned in China for more than a decade are also urging Trump to seek their release.

On trade, the anticipated deliverables are modest: a handful of deals and mechanisms to manage future trade flows.

It remains unclear whether the leaders will even agree to extend their existing trade truce, according to officials involved in the planning. Trump will be accompanied by business leaders including Tesla's Elon Musk and Apple's Tim Cook, though the delegation is smaller than during his 2017 Beijing visit.

How is Trump using China to resolve the Iran war?

Trump wants Beijing to use its relationship with Tehran to push Iran toward a deal with Washington that would end the conflict. China maintains close ties with Iran and remains a major buyer of its oil exports, giving Beijing significant influence over Tehran's calculations.

Matt Pottinger, who served as deputy national security advisor during Trump's first term, said China is not immune to the economic costs of a prolonged conflict, even if it would prefer an outcome that weakens American power.

But Beijing will want something in return, and Taiwan sits at the top of Xi's agenda. The democratically governed island is claimed by China, and any change in Washington's wording on Taiwan independence, however nuanced, would raise anxiety about US commitment among allies across Asia.

Wu Xinbo, a professor at Fudan University who advises China's foreign ministry, said Trump should make clear he "won't support independence or take actions that encourage a separatist political agenda."

What does China want from the Trump-Xi summit?

China wants the Trump administration to commit to not taking future retaliatory trade action, including technology export controls, and to roll back existing restrictions on chipmaking equipment and advanced memory chips, according to people briefed on the talks.

Since last October, Beijing has also been expanding its own economic leverage, including laws to penalize foreign entities that shift supply chains away from China and tighter controls on rare earth exports. Those rare earth restrictions have already exposed Western dependency on materials critical to electric vehicles and weapons manufacturing.

A majority of Americans, 53 percent, now favor friendly cooperation and engagement with China, up from 40 percent in 2024, according to a Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey published in October.

That shift in public mood means simply keeping relations stable and extending the trade truce could be enough for Trump to claim a political win. But Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said the most likely outcome was "a superficial ceasefire that is largely to China's advantage."