Pakistan's inflation accelerated to 9.12% year-on-year in the week ending April 2, the highest weekly reading since November 2024, as surging fuel and LPG prices drove up costs across the economy.
On a week-on-week basis, the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) rose by 1.01%, continuing the upward trajectory that began in mid-March, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data released on Friday.
A day ago, the government announced a historic hike in fuel prices, raising petrol by PKR 137.24 per liter to PKR 458.41 and diesel by PKR 184.49 per liter to PKR 520.35, driven by the escalating US-Israeli conflict with Iran that has sent global crude oil prices to record highs.
Year-on-year, the biggest increase was observed in the prices of LPG (53.69%), diesel (29.94%), gas charges for Q1 (29.85%), petrol (26.17%), and wheat flour (24.85%).
On a week-on-week basis, the biggest increase was observed in the prices of LPG (13.28%), eggs (2.23%), chicken (2.13%), pulse mash (1.74%), and mutton (1.54%).
The items whose prices saw the biggest decrease included tomatoes (6.03%), garlic (3.38%), potatoes (1.22%), onions (1.21%), and wheat flour (0.92%).
Pakistan tracks inflation weekly and monthly. The former is called the SPI, while the latter is tracked through the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The SPI, which tracks the prices of 51 essential commodities from 50 markets across 17 cities, is used as a key gauge of short-term inflation trends.
During the week ended April 2, out of 51 items, the prices of 15 (29.41%) items increased, 9 (17.65%) items decreased, and 27 (52.94%) items remained stable.
The week's data captured the impact of earlier fuel price adjustments but predates the massive April 3 increase, which is expected to further amplify inflationary pressures in the coming weeks.
LPG prices surged 53.69% year-on-year and 13.28% week-on-week, while energy charges remained elevated, with electricity for Q1 unchanged at PKR 7.47 per unit and gas charges up nearly 30% annually.
In March, the CPI or headline inflation increased to 7.3%, marking the highest level in 19 months.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projects inflation to largely stay within the 5-7% range in FY26, though the outlook remains subject to risks from volatile international commodity prices, global trade uncertainty, and unanticipated adjustments in domestic administered energy prices.
SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed said the central bank expects real GDP growth to remain within the projected range of 3.75-4.75% for FY26, though the outlook remains subject to risks from ongoing geopolitical developments.
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