Why the Balochistan train hijacking is a dangerous escalation

The recent attack on a passenger train in Pakistan’s southwest by the separatist Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has underscored the increasing confidence and capability of militant groups in the country’s volatile province, according to experts.

Separatist militants ambushed the Jaffar Express traveling from Quetta to Peshawar, killing several people, including the train’s driver, and taking over 450 passengers hostage. The unprecedented hostage situation is the latest in a string of escalating attacks that showcase the militants' evolving tactics.

Militants shift strategy

Dr. Qamar Cheema, a security expert, told Nukta that this attack represents a strategic shift for the BLA.

“This is the first time BLA has hijacked a train. Previously, they targeted individuals or security personnel traveling on buses. This incident demonstrates an increase in their resources, intelligence, and ability to inflict damage on the Pakistani state.”

Cheema said the Balochistan conflict is intensifying due to collaboration between Baloch and Sindhi militant organizations and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

“These ethnic and Islamist militant groups are now cooperating, escalating the conflict. A lack of societal support for the political setup further emboldens these militant organizations,” he added.

To counter this threat, Cheema emphasized the need for better intelligence gathering, cutting off militant supply lines, and tracking infiltrators within communities. He also stressed the importance of raising the issue internationally, particularly with India and Afghanistan, and at the UN.

Threat grows as militants adapt

Islamabad-based journalist Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud told Nukta that Baloch armed separatists have become a major security challenge for Pakistan, posing threats both domestically and internationally.

On the domestic front, he said, militants have escalated their attacks, increasingly using suicide bombings, coordinated raids on security installations, and sniper attacks with thermal night vision weapons. Their tactics often involve storming government compounds and holding them for hours to showcase their strength and influence local populations.

Internationally, Mehsud noted, Baloch separatists are persistently targeting Chinese nationals and infrastructure, particularly those linked to CPEC and non-CPEC projects. This has strained Pakistan’s diplomatic relations with China, its closest ally.

“The issue with Pakistan’s security institutions is their reliance on outdated counterterrorism strategies,” he said. “For instance, in Jaffer Express attack, it is baffling that a large group of security personnel was allowed to travel together on a single train through a volatile region—despite recent militant attacks on convoys and trains. Meanwhile, the separatists continue evolving their operational tactics.”

Mehsud pointed to a flawed mindset within Pakistan’s security establishment, which, he said, treats violence in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as peripheral issues that can be contained before spreading to the country’s core regions. This approach, he argued, has allowed militant groups with diverse ideologies to expand and become more confident.

Despite Balochistan’s potential for foreign investment—boasting rich natural resources and a strategic position as a regional trade hub—Mehsud warned that the worsening security situation will likely deter investors.

Unification of BLA factions

Security expert Imtiaz Gul told Nukta that this attack is a direct result of a recent three-day meeting in which all BLA factions decided to unify their military efforts.

“They have formed a joint force to combat Pakistan’s security agencies and push for ‘Balochistan’s independence’. This attack combines assaults on infrastructure, civilians, and non-civilians. Reports indicate government officials and soldiers are among the hostages, highlighting the severity of the security crisis.”

Gul warned that the attack could mark the beginning of an intensified insurgency, as BLA factions seek to demonstrate their renewed strength.

Unprecedented hostage crisis

Senior journalist Syed Ali Shah, based in Balochistan, described the scale of this attack as unprecedented.

“This is the first hostage situation in Balochistan’s insurgency history. Militants have confirmed that they are holding 182 passengers captive.”

Previously, militants focused on sabotaging railway tracks with explosives. This time, they have taken over an entire train and its passengers, indicating a shift in strategy.

Shah noted that attacks in Bolan are not new, but Baloch separatist militants have significantly increased their operational capabilities over the past year. “In 2023, they carried out simultaneous attacks across ten districts of Balochistan, showing their growing strength and presenting a serious challenge for the government.”

Tactical and psychological warfare

Security analyst Muhammad Shoaib said the hostage crisis demonstrates both the capacity and confidence of the separatist groups.

“They have gathered intelligence on security force movements, can engage on multiple fronts, and are skilled at launching high-profile attacks that attract media attention.”

Shoaib warned that a prolonged siege could work in the militants’ favor. “A high-profile attack like this raises their profile, attracts potential recruits, and exposes state vulnerabilities. Security forces must be cautious to minimize civilian casualties, making a rescue operation highly complex.”

Expanding capabilities

Journalist and political-economy commentator Adnan Aamir highlighted the rapid expansion of militant capabilities in recent months.

“The frequency and intensity of Baloch militant attacks have increased due to a surge in recruitment. This has allowed them to escalate operations from hit-and-run attacks on security posts to full-fledged ambushes, city takeovers, and now, hijacking a train.”

Aamir pointed to the difficult terrain as a key advantage for militants. “Bolan is mountainous, with high peaks and caves, making it extremely challenging for security forces to operate. If the militants retreat, pursuing them will be near impossible.”

He noted that Pakistan’s counterterrorism strategy faces serious challenges. “Security forces are under immense pressure to act against Baloch separatists. But despite the increasing threat, the government’s response has not been proportional. Due to limited capacity and the militants’ stronghold in difficult terrain, a direct military response will be extremely challenging.”

The Jaffar Express attack has exposed the evolving strategies of Baloch separatist militants. Their ability to coordinate large-scale assaults, take hostages, and engage in prolonged confrontations with security forces underscores a growing insurgency in Balochistan.

As pressure mounts on the Pakistani government, security forces face the difficult task of balancing military action with counterinsurgency strategies that prevent further radicalization. The coming days will reveal whether this attack is an isolated event or the start of a more aggressive phase in Balochistan’s separatist movement.