Yemen warns Houthis are planning to seize Bab al-Mandab coast

Yemen's government has warned that Houthi rebels are plotting to seize land along the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a move that would let the group further threaten one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. Three Houthi military sources and a Yemeni government spokesman told AFP the rebels are preparing to advance along the coast.

Who controls Bab al-Mandab Strait?

No single force directly controls the coastline on the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The Iran-backed Houthis hold the nearby port city of Hodeida to the north and have repeatedly attacked ships in the Red Sea, but they do not yet hold territory directly on the strait itself. Government-aligned forces control the areas bordering the waterway.

Why does Yemen's government say the Houthis are planning an offensive?

Yemen's information minister, Moammar al-Eryani, said the Houthis are working to create the conditions for seizing the strait by expanding their presence along the western coast and attempting to control strategic Red Sea islands. He pointed to a Houthi military build-up and said their intent was shown through repeated attacks on ports, docks, civilian infrastructure, ships, and government naval forces.

Major-General Sadeq Duwaid, spokesman for the government-affiliated National Resistance Forces that control areas bordering the strait, said the rebels are striving to secure a foothold in Bab al-Mandab. He said continued Houthi attacks on Mokha and its port are aimed at establishing a presence along the strait's shores and turning the area into a situation resembling the Strait of Hormuz.

What would a Houthi takeover of Bab al-Mandab mean for shipping?

A successful assault would cement Houthi control over one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. The Iran-backed rebels have already disrupted traffic through the strait with attacks on passing vessels since the Gaza war began in 2023. Greater Houthi control would also choke off Saudi oil exports, against which the group has already announced a maritime blockade, and would extend Tehran's reach to a second vital Middle East waterway after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz during its war with the United States.

What signs point to a Houthi offensive on the coast?

In recent weeks, the rebels have launched their deadliest attacks on Yemeni government forces in years. They have also begun targeting the port city of Mokha, which lies close to Bab al-Mandab, along with military sites near the strait and government-held islands in the Red Sea. Three Houthi military sources told AFP the group is preparing an operation to seize areas south of Hodeida, with around 2,000 fighters deployed to front lines in Taiz and Hodeida provinces, backed by rocket launchers.