AJK election battle overshadows deepening political unrest

Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) is heading into one of its most closely watched elections in years, but instead of focusing on the region's deepening political unrest, the campaign has turned into a bitter showdown between the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

The two coalition partners at the federal level are locked in an increasingly acrimonious battle for power, trading allegations of election rigging, stolen mandates and political victimization, while the escalating crisis on the ground has largely taken a back seat.

Kamran Khan said in the latest episode of On My Radar that rather than addressing the worsening security and political situation in AJK, both parties have made the election a contest of accusations and political point-scoring. Although PML-N and the PPP have governed together at the federal level for the past four-and-a-half years, their public rallies and press conferences have been dominated by attacks on each other's credibility instead of offering solutions to the region's challenges.

PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has accused the PML-N-led government in AJK of being the product of systematic electoral manipulation. Addressing Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Bilawal said the public rejects his government's performance and described it as "a product of Form-47."

Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz dismissed Bilawal's allegations, urging him to accept defeat instead of complaining. Her remarks came as AJK itself remains gripped by a separate political crisis, with protests led by the Joint Awami Action Committee turning increasingly violent. Despite the deteriorating situation, the parties seeking to form the next government have remained focused on attacking each other rather than addressing the unrest.

The first phase of the three-stage AJK elections has already shifted the political landscape. In voting held on Monday, PML-N won nine of the 13 seats contested, while the PPP secured the remaining four.

The results have intensified the war of words between the two parties. Bilawal alleged that PML-N places its own political interests above the national interest and accused it of once again manipulating the electoral process. Maryam Nawaz countered that the PPP had accepted election results when it won in Gilgit-Baltistan but began alleging rigging only after losing in AJK.

Bilawal argued that allegations of electoral fraud did not begin with the current election, claiming he had remained silent in previous instances in the interest of national unity. Maryam responded by saying that despite governing Sindh continuously for 17 years, the PPP had little to show for its record.

The political importance of the AJK elections has also drawn former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif back into the spotlight. Having largely refrained from commenting on major national issues since returning from exile, he warned Bilawal not to confuse Kashmir with Kashmore or Mirpur with Mirpurkhas, underscoring the symbolic significance of the contest.

The elections are also historic because, for the first time, AJK's legislative assembly polls are being held in three phases instead of a single day. The Election Commission of Azad Jammu and Kashmir said the staggered schedule was designed to improve security, administrative efficiency and polling arrangements. The phased process is expected to shape the political momentum as parties compete to secure enough seats to form the next government.

The vote comes against the backdrop of weeks of political unrest across AJK. What began in 2023 as a movement demanding 38 reforms—including cheaper electricity and subsidized flour—has evolved into a wider political confrontation. The Joint Awami Action Committee is now primarily demanding the abolition of the 12 legislative seats reserved for Jammu and Kashmir refugees residing in Pakistan. The dispute intensified after the AJK Supreme Court ruled on June 7 that the refugee seats were constitutional.

The government says it has, in principle, accepted 37 of the committee's 38 demands and that only the issue of the 12 refugee seats remains unresolved because of constitutional constraints.

Following the first phase of polling on July 27, violent clashes and protests were reported in several parts of AJK, with both authorities and protesters making competing claims over casualties. For the past two days, the Joint Awami Action Committee's long march has continued in Rawalakot, while a strike remains underway in Mirpur, raising fresh concerns over the deteriorating law and order situation.

The confrontation between PML-N and the PPP, however, is far from new. The two parties have spent decades accusing each other of corruption, poor governance, incompetence and election rigging. Yet despite their fierce political rivalry, they have repeatedly found themselves on the same side when it comes to forming governments at the national level.