Fitch revises oil forecast higher on prolonged Hormuz disruption

Fitch Ratings has raised its near-term assumptions for global oil and European natural gas prices, citing ongoing disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz and tighter liquefied natural gas supplies to Europe.

The ratings agency said it now expects Brent crude prices to remain between USD 100 and USD 110 per barrel from May through July before easing later in the year as supply conditions normalize. Fitch previously assumed the disruption would last one to two months but has now extended that outlook to around five months.

The agency said about 20% of global oil consumption typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, including roughly 15 million barrels per day of crude oil and 5 million barrels of oil-equivalent refined products before the conflict-related disruption.

Fitch expects oil production to recover relatively quickly once shipping routes reopen, with OPEC likely to increase output toward maximum capacity to offset supply losses. The agency also projected additional production growth from non-OPEC countries, including the United States, Kazakhstan and Venezuela.

The ratings firm also raised its 2026 and 2027 assumptions for Europe’s benchmark Title Transfer Facility gas prices, pointing to disrupted LNG flows from Qatar and damage to LNG infrastructure in the region.

“Assuming the strait reopens around July, the European gas market will remain tight throughout 2026,” Fitch said in its report.

However, Fitch left its Henry Hub natural gas assumptions unchanged, saying limited U.S. liquefaction capacity would restrict American producers’ ability to capitalize on higher overseas gas prices.