Global goods trade hits record $26.5 trillion in 2025

Global goods trade reached a record $26.5 trillion in 2025, and most logistics executives expect momentum to continue into 2026 despite lingering tariff risks, according to a new report by DP World.

A remarkable 94% of surveyed executives anticipate that trade growth in 2026 will be either faster than 2025 (54%) or similar to last year (40%). The total value of global goods trade rose from $25 trillion in 2024 to an estimated $26.5 trillion in 2025, setting a new high.

The report said G20 countries, members of the African Union and the European Union — which together account for roughly 75% of global trade — demonstrated resilience in the face of tariff shocks.

Europe and China seen as top growth regions

Executives expect positive trade growth potential across multiple regions in 2026, underscoring what the report described as the increasingly multipolar nature of global commerce.

When asked to select the single region with the biggest trade growth potential in 2026, 22% chose Europe and 17% chose China. Asia-Pacific followed at 14%, and North America at 13%.

Strong South-South trade growth, particularly in East Asia and Africa, is expected to continue. China’s expanding trade ties with countries in the Global South are a key driver. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the expanded BRICS+ bloc could account for 44% of China’s total trade growth over the next decade.

Technology leads sector outlook

Technology is expected to be the top sector for trade growth in 2026. More than half of respondents, 52%, cited technology among the top three sectors poised for expansion.

That outpaced consumer goods at 45%, industrials at 36%, automotive at 33% and retail at 32%.

The report attributed technology growth to rising demand for electronics, servers and semiconductors, as well as electrification and the push for smarter, more energy-efficient systems and industrial plants.

Consumer and retail trade could also rise in 2026, supported by stimulus measures in China and broader economic growth across Asia. Continued expansion of online retail is improving competitiveness and helping companies capture more consumer spending, the report said.

Tariffs remain top risk

Despite the upbeat outlook, tariffs were identified as the leading risk to trade growth in 2026 for executives in most regions.
Executives in South America (56%) and India (14%) were especially likely to cite tariffs as the primary risk, reflecting their exposure to U.S. markets and sectors affected by U.S. trade measures.

Across all respondents, 18% identified economic shocks as the top risk. That concern was more pronounced in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, at 28%, and in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan region, at 22%. Energy price shocks and economic sanctions ranked lowest overall.

The findings suggest that U.S. tariffs have had a less severe impact than initially feared. Most countries did not retaliate, and new trade agreements were negotiated quickly. Many companies mitigated the effects by reorganizing supply chains, pivoting to new markets, front-loading imports, accepting lower margins or passing costs along the value chain.

China appears to have absorbed much of the impact. A sharp drop in exports to the United States in mid-2025 was largely offset by growth in shipments to other markets, notably Southeast Asia and Africa. Direct exports to the United States now account for less than 3% of China’s gross domestic product, down from more than 6% a decade ago, according to the report.

Non-tariff barriers on the rise

Trade barriers increasingly include non-tariff measures such as sustainability and sanitary requirements. The report noted that 1,731 new non-tariff barriers were recorded in the first seven months of 2025, up from 400 in 2018.

While such measures pose challenges — particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises with fewer resources to absorb compliance costs — many companies have been able to mitigate their effects, the survey found. In line with strategies to diversify suppliers and markets, route switching is expected to increase sharply in 2026.

For each major trade corridor surveyed, at least 26% of executives said they are planning to start using it in the coming year or are evaluating it as a possibility.

The report highlighted rapid growth in alternative corridors, particularly for intra-Asia and Asia-Africa flows. Transit via the Trans-Caspian “Middle Corridor” grew 150% year over year in 2022, while trade between Hong Kong and the Gulf region has more than doubled since 2023.

Investment in ports, rail and road infrastructure, combined with new trade and customs agreements, is opening up additional routes. Examples include the Lobito Corridor, which aims to cut transit time from mineral-rich areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia to Angola’s Port of Lobito from more than a month to about a week, and the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor, a proposed multimodal route linking India and Europe through the Middle East as an alternative to the Suez Canal.

Overall, the survey points to a global trading system that is adapting rather than retreating, with companies diversifying markets, sectors and supply chains to sustain growth into 2026.