Pakistan sets wheat production target of 33.58 million tons for 2024-25

Pakistan has set an ambitious wheat production target of 33.58 million tons for 2024-25, an increase of about 13% from the previous year. However, agriculture experts believe this target may not be met, forcing the government to import wheat to meet demand.

Pakistan's Federal Committee on Agriculture held a meeting last week to review the production of wheat, cotton, rice, and other crops. Representatives from the provinces were present at the meeting.

The federal government proposed a wheat production target of 33.58 million tons from an area of 10.368 million hectares to achieve self-sufficiency. However, provincial governments set lower targets, proposing a wheat production area of 9.263 million hectares with a production target of 27.92 million tons.

The Federal Committee on Agriculture urged provincial governments to make maximum efforts to achieve the proposed sowing and production targets to meet next year's wheat consumption needs.

A leading wheat trader, Atif Ghaffar, told Nukta that Pakistan's wheat market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past three years, with prices ranging from PKR 6000 ($21) to PKR 2500 per 40kg. Despite a 10% increase in cultivated area, this year's wheat production is expected to decline by 20% to 30%, he said.

The absence of farmers in key growing areas of Punjab — which produces almost 77% of Pakistan's wheat — and struggles faced by seed companies, which have sold only half their stock, suggest a bleak outlook. Experts predict a decrease of 40 kilograms per acre in wheat yield due to current conditions.

Pakistan imported approximately 3.536 million tons of wheat, valued at around $1.03 billion, in fiscal year 2023-24. This compares to 2.4 million tons of wheat imported the previous year, totaling $1.07 billion, according to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

Devastating floods in July and August 2022 caused losses exceeding $30 billion and damaged four million acres of crops. The floods in key wheat-producing provinces — Punjab and Sindh, which account for 77% and 15% of Pakistan's wheat production respectively — have severely impacted wheat output.

If production fails to meet government estimates, wheat imports could range from 2.5 million to 3.5 million tons, according to a leading wheat trader.

The price of flour reached an all-time high of PKR 170 per kilogram in 2022-23 but has since dropped to PKR 130 per kilogram.