Trump to host Xi amid pomp, low expectations

The US military honour guard has been rehearsing and the White House's new helipad is ready for Xi Jinping's first visit to Donald Trump's White House.

The Chinese president and his US counterpart are due to meet on September 24, with an AI race, a trade war, and tensions over Taiwan and Iran all looming over the Trump-Xi summit.

What is the Trump-Xi summit about?

The summit is meant to manage tensions between a superpower keen to keep its global standing and a rapidly rising rival determined to make this century a Chinese one.

Warnings of an AI arms race hang over the talks, alongside fallout from Trump's Iran war, a still-unresolved trade war, and the threat of conflict over Taiwan. "I'll be discussing almost everything with him," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday.

What are experts saying about the summit?

Experts told AFP the two leaders are more likely to extend a relative truce than produce concrete results, much like when Xi hosted Trump in Beijing four months ago. "I don't expect much to come out of this," said Jonathan Czin of the Brookings Institution. "In many ways, this is going to be a recapitulation of Trump's visit to Beijing back in May, where the focus was really on the ostensible rapport between the two leaders."

AI regulation and a possible slowdown are expected to be a major topic, given global concern over the technology. But Wang Dong, a professor at Peking University, said major deals are "politically out of reach for now," as both Beijing and Washington fear losing the race for AI dominance.

Will Trump and Xi ease tensions over Iran and trade?

Tensions over Iran are also expected to come up. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to meet his Chinese counterpart He Lifeng this weekend for pre-summit talks that include Iran sanctions. Trump has downplayed reports that Chinese entities supplied Iran with satellite imagery for an attack on a US military base in Jordan, saying Xi had "behaved reasonably well" and that "we spy on them, too."

On trade, Yue Su of The Economist Intelligence Unit told AFP there is "room for progress on tariffs, agricultural purchases and selected export controls." The son of jailed Hong Kong pro-democracy media mogul Jimmy Lai has appealed to Xi from Washington for his 78 year old father's release. Trump said in May he had raised Lai's case with Xi but that release was unlikely, though Beijing did free underground church founder Ezra Jin after Trump intervened on his behalf.

Why is Trump focused on the spectacle of Xi's visit?

Trump has, as often before, appeared more interested in the optics of hosting a powerful foreign leader than in the substance of the talks. "This is less a summit and more a spectacle. This is designed for deep public consumption," said Kurt Campbell, former US Deputy Secretary of State and now Chairman of The Asia Group.

Trump pushed for a new granite helicopter landing pad on the White House South Lawn to be ready in time for Xi's visit, which will include a grand state dinner. Troops in dress uniforms have been rehearsing on the White House driveway this week ahead of the welcome ceremony. Trump's only disappointment is that his under-construction $400 million ballroom won't be finished in time, though he has said it will eventually "top" Beijing's Great Hall of the People, where Xi hosted him in May.

During that Beijing trip, Trump praised Xi extensively, only for the Chinese leader to warn about possible "conflict" over Taiwan. Fears of a Chinese invasion of the self-governing island, a global semiconductor hub that Beijing claims as its own territory, remain the most sensitive issue between Washington and Beijing, according to Peking University's Wang.

One possible concrete outcome is an announcement of further summits. Trump and Xi are expected to meet again in November at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Shenzhen, China, and the Kremlin has floated a three-way meeting that would include Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump is also expected to invite Xi to the G20 summit in December at his Doral resort in Miami.