South Asia teeters on the edge of nuclear conflict after India’s Indus Waters Treaty move

Kamran Khan has warned that the world may be on the brink of a catastrophic nuclear standoff as tensions between India and Pakistan flare over the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.

In his latest vlog, Khan said the two nuclear-armed rivals are again inching dangerously close to a potential atomic conflict. He noted that India has formally notified Pakistan of its decision to suspend the landmark 1960 agreement brokered by the World Bank.

“India has not just announced its intention — it has sent a written warning,” Khan said. “This means India is convinced it can unilaterally suspend the Indus Waters Treaty. Pakistan considers this an act of war.”

He emphasized that Pakistan has signaled it would respond with the full spectrum of its conventional and nuclear military capabilities if provoked, pointing to official statements from Islamabad.

Despite India's significantly larger population, economy and military manpower, Khan said the nuclear balance between the two countries remains even.

“India’s GDP is 10 times larger than Pakistan’s, its foreign reserves are 50 times more, and it has three times as many military personnel,” Khan said. “But when it comes to nuclear warheads, both are almost equal — India has 172, Pakistan has 170.”

Citing data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Khan said Pakistan is ranked as the world’s seventh-largest nuclear power, just behind India, and is projected to expand its nuclear arsenal to over 200 warheads by 2030.

He further pointed to a 2023 speech by Lt. Gen. (retd) Khalid Kidwai, a senior adviser to Pakistan’s National Command Authority, who described Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine as “full spectrum deterrence.” That doctrine includes strategic, operational and tactical capabilities across land, air and sea.

Pakistan’s nuclear assets, managed by its Strategic Plans Division, include short-range missiles like the Hatf and Nasr series, medium-range ballistic missiles such as Ghauri and Shaheen, and air-delivered weapons capable of being launched from F-16s and JF-17s. Khan also highlighted sea-based deterrents, including submarine-launched cruise missiles like Babur-III.

Despite this deadly arsenal, Khan argued that Pakistan remains a responsible nuclear power committed to peaceful coexistence. Still, he warned that if India’s actions threaten Pakistan’s economic lifeline — its access to the Indus river system — the country may be left with no option but to respond.

“This water is not just a treaty issue. It is about the food, agriculture and security of 240 million Pakistanis,” Khan said. “If these nuclear weapons aren’t used to defend our people in such a crisis, then what are they for?”

He said many Pakistanis now openly question whether the nuclear deterrent — developed over decades with national sacrifice — would ever be activated if not in a moment like this.

He urged the international community, particularly the World Bank and United Nations, to act swiftly to mediate the dispute and prevent further escalation.

“If there is no de-escalation, even the slightest miscalculation could lead to a nuclear war,” Khan warned. “The consequences would be unimaginable.”

In a nod to peace, he quoted Indian cricket legend Sunil Gavaskar, who recently said that despite 78 years of conflict, not an inch of land has changed hands. “Then why not live in peace and build our nations instead?” Khan asked.