China, Pakistan, Bangladesh form emerging ‘triad’ reshaping South Asian power balance

South and East Asia are witnessing the rise of a new geopolitical alignment, with China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh forming what Kamran Khan described as a “triad” based on economic partnership, strategic coordination, and growing cooperation on international platforms.

Speaking in the latest episode of On My Radar, Khan said this evolving bloc, led by China, extends beyond diplomatic symbolism and has the potential to alter both the balance of power and the balance of economy in the region.

Khan said Pakistan already enjoys deep defense and economic cooperation with China through the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Bangladesh, following the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government and the rise of an interim administration, is now strengthening ties with both Beijing and Islamabad.

Unverified reports suggest Bangladesh is exploring a mutual defense agreement with Pakistan, modeled on Saudi Arabia’s security framework. Dhaka has also begun talks with Beijing to purchase J-10C fighter jets, according to the Dhaka Tribune. The proposed deal, worth about $2.2 billion, involves 20 aircraft to be delivered by 2027, with China offering a decade-long payment plan.

Khan said the shift began earlier this year when Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser, Dr Muhammad Yunus, chose China for his first official foreign visit in March.

During his meeting with President Xi Jinping, Yunus invited Chinese investment in key projects such as the Teesta River and Mongla Port. Beijing responded by pledging $2.1 billion in grants and financing under the Belt and Road Initiative, launching projects worth $400 million within two months.

“This transformation has created unease in India,” Khan said, noting that Chinese engagement in Bangladesh’s infrastructure has expanded rapidly.

He cited reports from the Financial Times showing that in the past 14 months, China held 22 high-level meetings with Pakistani leaders and seven with Bangladeshi politicians. In contrast, during Sheikh Hasina’s last five years in office, Beijing and Dhaka met only eight times at such a level.

Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch also visited Beijing in January and Dhaka in April, paving the way for the first-ever China-Pakistan-Bangladesh tripartite talks held in Kunming in June. The meeting established a working group to coordinate economic and strategic cooperation and promote Chinese investment across the three nations.

In May and June, China sent its largest-ever trade delegation to Bangladesh — 250 officials led by the Chinese commerce minister — to discuss industrial cooperation and infrastructure partnerships.

Khan noted that Islamabad and Beijing have enjoyed a “brotherly relationship” for decades, but Dhaka’s recent foreign policy shift marks a significant departure from its traditionally close ties with India. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief Adviser Dr Yunus have already met three times on global platforms this year, signaling growing political warmth.

Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar’s visit to Dhaka two months ago — the first by a Pakistani foreign minister in 13 years — further strengthened this trend. During the visit, Dar signed one bilateral agreement and five memorandums of understanding with Bangladeshi officials and met with leaders of Jamaat-e-Islami, the National Citizen Party, and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

In July, Pakistan’s Interior Minister and cricket board chief Mohsin Naqvi also visited Dhaka, where the two countries discussed sports and other cooperation. Khan noted the “visible warmth” between Pakistani and Bangladeshi players during the Asia Cup as a reflection of improving relations.

Military-level contacts have increased as well. In January, Bangladesh Army’s Principal Staff Officer Lt. Gen. S.M. Qamar Hassan met Pakistan’s Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir. In August, Bangladesh’s Quartermaster General Lt. Gen. Faizur Rahman visited Pakistan and met Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee Gen. Sahir Shamshad Mirza. Earlier, in April, Dhaka demolished the “Liberation War Memorial,” a site seen in Islamabad as a symbol of discord.

“These developments have caused anxiety in New Delhi,” Khan said. India’s Chief of Defense Staff Gen. Anil Chauhan reportedly views the growing closeness between Islamabad, Dhaka, and Beijing as a strategic challenge.

He added that China’s influence now stretches across South Asia, from Sri Lanka and the Maldives to emerging ties with Nepal and Bhutan. If the China-Pakistan-Bangladesh partnership deepens, Khan warned, India could face “diplomatic, economic, and strategic isolation.”

From Pakistan’s Gwadar Port to Bangladesh’s Mongla Port, China is building an independent investment network insulated from Indian influence. If this cooperation expands to include intelligence sharing and defense collaboration, he said, “it could redefine South Asia’s power map.”

While Khan said it is too early to call the emerging bloc a formal “defense alliance,” he noted that the existing South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has become ineffective due to India’s dominance. The new triad, he argued, could open a new chapter of peace, security, and economic stability in the region.